Space resources

Building the Space economy

This is an older Idea I have been trying to get published so some of the details might be out of date but the general concept should still be good.

Abstract

Despite the fact that off earth mining can be justified economically in terms of resources, these enterprises have yet attempted. The difficulty with current strategies is that they have few opportunities to recover initial investments. As such, there is very little incentive to invest. Space remains a small arena of, sadly, underfunded pure science.

One solution is to create a bounty system for mineral deposits. In combination with Prospecting rovers to find resources, if Governments provided a means of recognizing mineral claims, these claims could be seen as a long term investment. Hence investors may be more willing to pay to start looking for deposits and ultimately create economies in space. Once resources have been identified mining, mineral refinement, and ultimately manufacturing can be established.

The key technologies for this strategy include Lunar and Mars orbital transportation, exploration rovers, mining vehicles, mineral refinement, and manufacturing systems, all of which currently exist. Current missions, such as NASA’s Curiosity, shows that the technology to explore other planets is mature enough for long missions. NASA has also developed mining vehicles targeting lunar regolith. Mineral refinement could be accomplished using Plasma Furnaces, which require minimal chemical input from Earth. Manufacturing techniques, such as extrusion machines could be used to create simple products and more complex products could be created using 3D Printing. An estimate of the cost of establishing these operations is made and compared to existing and planned earth based mining investments.

Many of these technologies have not been used in space, but they are mature on earth and require the research efforts to make them functional in off earth environments. This shows that the technology required to create an off earth economy exists, it simply requires investors to make the effort to implement these types of strategies.

1. Introduction

From examining the current state of space technologies it is possible to show that all of the technology required for space industries to operate, currently exists. These technologies include exploration rovers, mining vehicles, mineral refinement, and manufacturing systems. Secondly, despite the fact that asteroid and off earth mining can be justified economically in terms of resources, no-one has yet attempted off earth resource development. Space remains a small arena of, sadly, underfunded pure science.

To change this situation requires space operations to be viewed as an investment as opposed to just an expense. Ultimately, establishing off earth mining and manufacturing operations requires viable economic incentives.

Previous researchers [1]–[12] have considered establishing asteroid Lunar and Martian mining operations. These strategies have typically been outlined in terms of the technical requirements for extracting ores from the target environments. Asteroid mining operations have been discussed in detail by Sonter [9]–[14]. Lunar [15]–[22] and Mars mining [23]–[29] has typically been investigated in terms of mars colonization and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). While these researchers have often justified the operations economically none have yet been implemented.

In terms of economics, Lanius [30] discusses several earth-based incentive programs for the development of “critical activities” in the History of the United States and draws conclusions about how space-based commerce could be stimulated. It is suggested that there are many similarities between the current situation in space and previous situations specifically in the United States of America. These situations include the 19th Century Transcontinental Railway, Commercial Air transportations 1915–1970, and telecommunication infrastructure from 1876 until as late as 1980 among other incentive plans.

Future demands for Lunar services have been examined by Anderson [22]. The main motivations for establishing Lunar services include lunar surface payload delivery for infrastructure, support, and supplies and mining. Lunar mining for Helium-3 has been proposed several times [20], [31], [32] and the economics examined. However, nuclear fusion reactors for Helium-3 have not yet been developed. As such, there is little incentive to invest in the technology or the space infrastructure specifically for Helium-3. It has also been suggested that Lunar Oxygen [33] could be mined for profit, but again, there is no economic demand for the product is limited at present, so again there is little incentive to invest.

In the last few decades, several private companies have been established that are either attempting operations in space or already capable of operating in space. These include:

· Space X

· Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic

· Ad Astra

Space X [34], [35] has become a successful space launch company with several successful cargo shipments and have developed a manned module capable of sending people to the International space station. Their largest launch vehicle the Falcon 9 Heavy is capable of lifting 54 tonnes into orbit and has been quoted as costing less than $85 Million (US) per launch [36].

Scaled Composites developed the White Knight and Spaceship 1 in response to the Ansari X prize in 2004 [37], [38]. Virgin Galactic was created to commercialize the technology. Despite the difficulties, they have been attempting to create a business around space tourism, simply by launching people out of the atmosphere. This has included developing new launch vehicles and ground support facilities for running commercial flights.

Ad Astra [39], [40] has developed the VASIMR (VAriable Specific Impulse Magneto-plasma-dynamic Rocket) engine and is scheduled to be installed on the International space station [41]. The VASIMR engine has the potential to create new operations in earth orbit and between Earth Mars and the Moon. These engines have been shown to be more efficient than chemical rockets. A 200 kW version has been designed to transport 100 T of cargo to lunar orbit [42] and potentially reduce the time to fly to Mars by 10% [43] compared with chemical rockets.

Other motivation strategies that have been used include the use of competitions such as the Ansari X Prize and the Google Lunar X-prize. The Ansari X prize [37], [38], [44], [45] was a competition to produce a launch vehicle that could launch a person into space. The competition was launched in March 2004. The prize for this competition was a $10,000,000. This was won by Scaled Composites in October 2004. This competition encouraged as many as 10 competitors to build and test various designs in attempts to win. In a similar form, the Google Lunar X-prize [16], [30] was established to encourage the development of lunar mining rovers. A prize of $25 million was offered for the first organization to successfully deploy a vehicle that can send images back from the lunar surface.

While these organizations are established on earth, to date no operations have successfully been established in space. Most previous research has focused on one aspect of mining operations, including specific technologies, launch and orbit characteristics, and economics. Part of the problem is that there is no existing demand for goods in space and it is difficult for materials to be returned to earth. As such, it is still difficult to generate a return on investments. Figure 1 shows the approximate Delta-V required to move a vehicle or equipment from Earth to Asteroid, Lunar or Mars surfaces. This represents the required energy and ultimately gives an indication of the cost of such missions. Notably, to get material back from each of these destinations requires double the energy.

Figure 1 Transportation Delta-V Review

Figure 2 Proposed Initial Economic Cycle

This research presents a plan for establishing a cycle of exploration, mining, and production, as shown in Figure 2. To develop this cycle of investment and production, several missions and technologies are required.

· Prospector Exploration Vehicles

· Power production

· Mining and Mineral refinement

· Manufacturing

The first project required is to create an effective transportation system to the target. Ad Astra [42], [46] has already created a specification for a Lunar Orbital transfer vehicle based on the VASIMR technology.

2. Prospectors

The first stage of establishing a space economy is to create and deploy infrastructure to explore a planet such as the Moon or Mars. Essentially deploy enough rovers to other planets that exploration is viable. Prospectors would be encouraged to rent the rovers to discover mineral deposits. The rent for the rovers is used to recover the cost of deploying the rovers. Mineral bounties could be used to encourage prospectors to search for particular minerals. Once a resource claim has been made it could either be sold to a mining company or a mining company may pay royalties to mine the minerals. There are several robotic vehicles currently operating on Mars [47]–[49] and many designs for new rovers [23], [49]–[52] that could be used for this purpose. Ultimately Prospectors would be the main investors of the space economy only receiving income once minerals are mined. As such resource claims need to be considered as a long term investment.

3. Power production

The main power production could be from solar power, at least initially. This requires either the transport of solar cells from earth or the manufacture of solar cells in-situ. There have been several strategies [17]–[19], [53]–[55] that present approaches for creating solar panels from Lunar soil.

4. Mining and Mineral refinement

Mining and Mineral refinement companies need to find the minerals, dig them up, and produce the refined minerals required for manufacturing companies. NASA sponsored a Lunar Regolith Excavation Competition [15] which aimed to examine different types of methods that could be used to mine lunar soil (regolith).

There are several strategies for refining minerals [19], [33], [53], [54], and current mineral research on earth has developed other methods that only use power to refine minerals called plasma furnaces [56]–[65]. These furnaces typically operate at between 1600 °C and 3000 °C. The plasma furnaces have shown to be able to recover high purity using a plasma torch with 1.6MWh/PMW-ton of electricity [65]. Jones et al. [66] have reviewed many of the plasma furnace operations and shown that the furnaces operating at between 50 and 1kW can produce 20–300 kg per hour.

5. Manufacturing

Manufacturers require the minerals produced by mining companies. Initially, rovers will need to be transported from Earth, but once manufacturing systems are established they could produce new roves and other vehicles to supply mining and manufacturing industries. Also once manufacturing is established other products can be developed and sold to create new industries. Several researchers have considered the use of 3D printing [67]–[71] and extrusion in space [72]. These manufacturing capabilities allow almost any shape of the object to be created. The main thing they will need is a supply of the minerals required to produce each product. These will be further minerals that can be added to the bounty list.

6. International Law

The current international legal framework is discussed by Hertzfeld and Von Der Dunk [73] ultimately it is concluded that there are no significant legal issues to space investments. It is suggested that governments will need to create waivers to allow space enterprises to operate.

The main international agreement that needs to be made is for the establishment of resource rights so that any claims made are acknowledged by all governments and thus can be traded. It is recommended that the claims should be limited to resources only. A resource claim should not establish any sovereign rights and as such can be owned by individuals and corporations. These rights should only be granted once an investigation of a location has been performed by an automated vehicle or manned vehicle and technical evaluation of the land has established the mineral content of the site. This ensures that a location has to be physically investigated before a claim can be made.

7. Mineral Bounty

To encourage investment in exploration, a government or a private company could put up a bounty for finding particular minerals. To build a rover or other manufacturing equipment particular resources are required, including Aluminium, Iron, Titanium or less common rare earth elements. Items such as motors require copper and magnetic materials. To encourage people to look for these minerals a bounty can be paid for their discovery. If prospecting rovers can be landed on a planet the capability to explore the planet for particular minerals exists. With the combination of the resource bounty and a long term acknowledgment of resource claims, investors can then feel secure enough to spend the money required to hire the rovers or simply buy claims from the rover operators. This investment strategy will allow the organizations that produce or operate the rovers to recover their investment as well. Continuing on this concept, once a resource claim is made, a mining company can either mine the resources at a site and pay the claim holder royalties for the minerals extracted or simply purchase the resource claim outright. This creates mineral stockpiles that can then be sold to manufacturers who can produce more rovers, fuel, and any other equipment or consumables required to expand existing operations or develop new operations.

8. Comparison with Mining investment

The total cost for this type of investment can be calculated and compared to existing mining developments. The majority of the cost of these missions is based around the launch costs of the missions. Other costs are a rough guess based on budgets for similar missions. Using SpaceX launches to establish an Earth-Lunar transport could be accomplished with at most 7 Launches.

1. Primary engines

2. Solar Panels (4 sets)

3. Fuel

4. Cargo

Including a $100 Million budget for developing the transport, the total for establishing the project should cost less than $1 Billion to be in orbit and operational. If the transport could be used for $200 Million with say $100 Million profit per trip. The break-even point is 10 Earth-Lunar runs.

To develop and produce say 10 Prospecting Rovers using existing designs should be able to be completed for less than $1 Billion Dollars. As the rovers are less than 2 T several of them should be able to be launched from a single Earth Lunar run. To keep the estimate conservative use 2 Lunar Runs, which would cost $600 Million including launch costs.

If the Mining and Manufacturing stages could be accomplished for:

· $100 Million development funds

· $100 Million a single SpaceX launch

· $200 Million Earth Lunar run

The costs would be in the range of $400 Million for each mining or manufacturing deployment from Earth.

In total, these projects require an estimated total of $3.4 Billion to establish a Prospecting, Mining, and Manufacturing Cycle. This includes funding for 8 SpaceX launches and 4 Earth Lunar transport runs. This amount is similar to other applications such as the $2.6 Billion for a near-earth asteroid retrieval mission by the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) [74].

If lunar minerals could be sold for $5,000 per kg on the lunar surface this would require 4400 T of minerals to be refined. At 20kg per hour from a single 25 kW Plasma furnace, producing the required minerals would take about 2.4 years of continuous operation.

A comparable Mars mission would require a more expensive Transport and would only be able to run once every 18 Months but the rest of the components would be the same.

To compare to existing and planned mining developments:

· $45 Billion Browse Basin liquefied natural gas, delayed [75]

· $30 Billion Olympic Dam Expansion, delayed [75]

· $8 Billion China First Coal project, existing [76]

· $7.5 Billion Alpha Coal Project, existing [76]

· $7.2 Billion Royal Hill, existing investment [77]

· $6.1 Billion Sino Iron Project, existing [76]

· $5.9 Billion Oakajee Port & Rail infrastructure, existing [76]

By definition, the money for an existing development has already been invested. From the estimated mission cost a Prospecting, Mining, Manufacturing on the lunar surface would cost significantly less than many current mining projects and is comparable to many others. The majority of these developments include significant investments in infrastructure, typically rail and or shipping infrastructure. The Earth Lunar transport can be considered in the same context; infrastructure for space transportation. This transport could potentially be a viable business on its own, simply moving cargo from Earth to Lunar orbit and back. Future infrastructure projects may include “cold storage stations” where cargo can be left in orbit to await transportation, which could also become independent businesses.

9. Conclusion

A review of the current literature shows that the technology required to produce rovers on the moon or mars from in situ resources. Rovers have been designed and have been operational on Mars for at least a decade. These rovers are capable of analyzing the mineral content of rocks and future designs have considered drilling for mineral exploration. Finally, the mineral-refinement processes have been developed on earth that only require power minimal catalyst material. Any minerals produced could then be used for the manufacturing of new products such as new rovers or completely new products for further exploration.

Creating an economy in space would hopefully encourage investment and ultimately the development of off-world resources. To create the economy several components are required to keep people interested in investing. These include:

· Prospecting rovers

· Power production

· Mining and Mineral refinement

· Manufacturing

These operations feed investment funds into each other and would allow a cycle of money to build. Initially, the prospectors are the main source of income for the whole system initially, but the resources they find become a long term investment. This initial investment is recovered when the resources are mined. Ultimately the money cycle allows the capabilities of the prospecting mining and manufacturing systems to be built up. The manufacturing capabilities can be used to produce existing products, Rovers, Mining vehicles, and manufacturing equipment. Once the manufacturing systems have expanded and matured further products such as space frames for material storage and equipment for colonization.

Existing mining developments have been proposed at as much as $45 Billion dollars. A very preliminary cost of establishing Earth-Lunar transport and the Exploration — Mining — Manufacturing has been presented here as costing $3.4 Billion. To be conservative even if the amount required for the space missions was increased to $5 billion it would still be comparable with many existing mining infrastructure projects. If this type of project was shared between Governments and private enterprise it could be easily accomplished and could potentially provide the basis for an off earth economy.

Notes

All Monetary estimates are given in US dollars.

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